2007-9-30 11:57
午后二点
Market Consolidates Ahead Of September 30th
[url=http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-09-29.htm#usa][b]USA[/b][/url]
The extent of stock-pumping by fund managers to improve their quarter-end results is difficult to gauge, but all should become clear as positions are unwound over the next few days.
The dollar has fallen to new lows against the euro and gold and oil have responded accordingly, with gold rising to $743.80/ounce and December light crude at $80.48/barrel. There may yet be another retracement to test support at $730/ounce, but the long-term target for gold is $900 [730+(730-565)].
[img=702,429]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_eur_gold_usd.png[/img]
A falling dollar may stimulate exports, but the subprime credit squeeze is likely to endure for some time. Declining yields on 3-month treasury bills reflect ongoing concern with all but the best borrowers in the financial markets: investors are prepared to accept a discount of 140 basis points over the equivalent rate on AA financial paper. The surge in the effective federal funds rate is larger than at previous month-ends, indicating that banks are feeling the credit squeeze, even with extra liquidity injected by the Fed.
[img=650,408]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_ffr_irx.png[/img]
[url=http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary_archives/2007-09-29.htm#dow_jones-industrial-average][b]Dow Jones Industrial Average[/b][/url]
Despite the credit squeeze the [b]Dow Jones Industrial Average[/b] is close to its all-time high of 14000. Breakout above 14000 would signal a test of the upper trend channel and a target of 15000 [14000+(14000-13000)]. Respect of resistance (at 14000) would warn of a test of primary support at 12800/13000.
[url=http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/twiggs_money_flow.htm][color=#0000ff]Twiggs Money Flow[/color][/url] signals short-term accumulation, but long-term distribution. A rise above the July high, however, would indicate buying strength.
[img=651,395]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_djiaa_w.png[/img]
[i]Short Term:[/i] The index is consolidating between 13700 and 14000. Expect a test of support after the quarter-end. Respect would be a bull signal, while failure would warn of another correction.
[img=651,395]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_djiaa.png[/img]
2007-9-30 11:59
午后二点
China: Hang Seng & Shanghai
The [b]Hang Seng[/b] is accelerating in a strong up-trend, while [url=http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/twiggs_money_flow.htm][color=#0000ff]Twiggs Money Flow[/color][/url] reflects exceptional long-term accumulation, with only a few small dips below the zero line since mid-2004. The Hang Seng trades at a lower Price Earnings multiple than the Shanghai Composite (19 v. 26 according to [url=http://www.forbes.com/home/2007/08/06/brazil-canada-china-pf-ii-cz_sr_0806scorecard.html][color=#0000ff]Forbes Global Market Scorecard[/color][/url]) and the two now appear to be converging.
[img=651,395]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_hsi.png[/img]
The [b]Shanghai Composite[/b] broke through resistance at 5500 after consolidating in a narrow band. Mild bearish divergence remains visible on Twiggs Money Flow, but rising lows now signal short-term accumulation. The next target is 6000 [5500+(5500-5000)], but we need to remain cautious as the index has slowed to below its trend channel. Reversal below 5000 would warn of a secondary correction.[b] The primary trend is in the final stage of a bull market, where advances are more likely to be based on expectations of further price rises rather than actual results[/b].
[img=651,395]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/images/20070929_ssec.png[/img]
[url=http://www.incrediblecharts.com/pan/adclick.php?n=a7cfd73d][img]http://www.incrediblecharts.com/pan/adview.php?what=zone:63&source=weekly_trading_diary&n=a7cfd73d[/img][/url]